Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Was I right or wrong?

Let me put myself to the test from last night's predictions:

Locally, I see no seats changing hands, but House 96 will be far closer than anyone expected.  Haslam will win, and so will Alexander, again with a much smaller margin than expected as the Carr/Tea Partiers skip the race.
Oops.  McManus won 62-38, but read Dwayne's comments below, I made a mistake on saying it was 2-1 in House 96, Haslam and Alexander won, the latter by 2-1 as well.  I guess the TPers held their noses.   Next?

The Amendments?  1 and 2 will FAIL, 3 and 4 will PASS, and the passing of 3 will be a tragedy for this state for the foreseeable future.
They ALL passed, and while I can live with 2 and 4, the fact that Tennessee women voluntarily gave control of their reproductive functions to the General Assembly astounds and infuriates me.  As for 3, the anti-Income Tax amendment?  That's abominable.  Can it get worse?

Predictions for the state House at the end of the night: 73 R, 26 D.  The Senate will be awful, 28 R, 5 D with no Democratic seats outside Memphis or Nashville, rock bottom. 
Sadly, I almost hit the Exacta here, as the final totals for the state House are 74 R, 25 D.  We lost Gloria Johnson in Knoxville and John Tidwell in New Johnsonville, but stunningly kept the seat formerly held by Charles Curtiss of Sparta, now held by Kevin Dunlap, representing Grundy, Warren and White Counties.  David Shepherd of the Dickson area held his seat by 16 votes despite having SIX mailers against him hit on Election Day.

The Senate?  Just as I called it, we lost the seats vacated by Charlotte Burks of Monterey and Lowe Finney, who is running for mayor of Jackson next year.  Democrats have NO Senate seats east of Nashville and NONE outside Memphis and Nashville.   Let's just move on.

The surprise of the night?  When all those good Republicans in TN-04 who voted for Jim Tracy turn on Scott DesJarlais and vote in Lenda Sherrell, with the thought that they will come back with Tracy in 2 years and beat her.  Of course, it will be a Presidential year and more difficult to do, but..... 
Translation: Whoever the GOP nominee is could make a sacrifice to Baal on the courthouse steps and these yahoos will vote for him.  Lenda Sherrell ran a good race, but these decent God-fearing white folk will never vote for a Democrat again since they elected that, well, you know, as President.

But, what about the US Senate?

Nationally?  I think we hold onto the US Senate, 51-49.  Mark Pryor survives in Arkansas, Grimes loses in KY because she ran away from her President, Nunn wins in GA. 

Oy.  the only thing I got right was Grimes, who deserved what she got.   We have a lot of work to do nationally, at the state level, and locally, which I will address in the next day or so.  Gonna have to put that 2015 mayor's race post back a day or two, sorry, Kyle Veazey!  :)


dwayne said...

Steve, you might recheck your figures. While we didn't crack 40, we came close and did better than 2-1. In fact, we did better than all non-incumbent Dems in the State except for Dunlap. This was despite several factors including:

1. Learning curve by the candidate.
2. Repub wave election.
3. Being ignored by the State Party and most of the local Dems.
4. The Germantown elections bringing out the 2 Gtown precincts in 96.
5. The amendments motivating conservative voters.
6. Cordova voters getting used to the idea of a serious race in their community.

There were several other factors, many of which will not exist in 2016.

Steve Steffens said...

You are correct, Dwayne and I apologize, you got 38% with everything working against you. And I agree that, in 2 years, the playing field will be LEVEL, which puts you in great position.