Friday, July 22, 2005

Don't reach for those chips, yet, boys, we're not finished playing the hand yet...

I hear through various sources that David Upton is saying that he has enough votes for David Cocke to win tomorrow. He's called me twice, I've called him once, we keep missing each other, so that's probably what he's calling about.

Don't dismiss that claim just yet people, let's look at the numbers. Of the 57 coalition delegates, Matt Kuhn was supported by 29, or a majority of ONE; If I were him, I'd be working the phones like crazy today.

If the Coalition members who DIDN'T vote for Kuhn decide to jump, then he's in trouble.

Another wild card in this mix is the current chair, Talut El-Amin. While I don't necessarily believe he has a chance to win, he has an outside chance at deciding who DOES. I expect he will have at least 2 votes on tomorrow's ExecCom. I suspect that his votes would go to David Cocke on a second ballot, and then........

In poker terms, we've had the ante (candidates entries, etc), the first round of bidding, the flop (the Caucuses), the next round of bidding with one player folding (Cherry Davis), and one candidate going all-in (Kuhn). It appears David Cocke is calling the bet; now we have to wait for the turn card (the Convention) and the river card (the chair vote).

Then, and ONLY then, will we know how this is going to turn out. Then we'll know who really has the best hand, and who was bluffing.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hitler (and many other demagogues) proved that if you shout lies loud enough and long enough some people are gullible enough to believe it.

To keep things in poker terms David Upton is bluffing, and he's about to be called. He doesn't have the cards, but wants everyone to think he does so they'll fold. Look into his eyes very very carefully.

Anonymous said...

OH MY GOD! Did you just compare David Upton to Hitler? I presume you are a Kuhn/Davis supporter. Is there no limit you people will go to? WAKE UP PEOPLE - is this really who you want running your party?

LeftWingCracker said...

OH MY GOD! THEY KILLED KENNY!

Can we keep the histrionics down, people?

I believe the first poster was using the poker analogy for Upton..

David Holt said...

Can someone please explain how this process is helping the party? In the course of the last month I have been accused of being in Chism's pocket, Upton's pocket, a Republican mole, of playing into the Republicans' hands, being a kid who doesn't know what he's doing, and of being part of some sort of conspiracy against David Cocke (who I actually like, although admittedly less so at the moment). Arm-twisting, lies, semi-bribes, and threats are flying everywhere. Come on people!!! I don't really even give a damn who wins the chairmanship race at this point, but I'm going to work my butt off for the party no matter who wins and no matter whether I get elected in 89 or not. I couldn't blame anyone who was so turned off by all this that they stayed away, though. Who's playing into Republican hands?

David Holt

Anonymous said...

Don’t you just love it when such a reaction results from a little needle? Get yourself a thicker skin. Don’t be so easily baited. You need to go study some history. One of the first rules of politics from history is to repeat your message. It doesn’t matter if it’s a bunch of lies. Abe Lincoln said you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time. PT Barnum proved otherwise, but the point here is just because someone SAYS something is true doesn’t MAKE it true. It just has to appear to be true long enough to influence a vote. Just ask Karl Rove, who won two presidential elections by spreading just enough fear and confusion for just long enough. And now he’s in hot water over his outing of a CIA agent for political purposes. Bush (or whichever empty suit Rove ran) could not possibly win if the 2004 presidential election were held today.

As far as all the noise going on in this week’s campaign for the executive committee and chair, just take everything with the proverbial grain of salt. Don’t be taken in by promises. Consider the source, and look for motivation. Remember, they are counting on whispers repeated often enough to selected people will be gullible enough to believe them until it’s too late. And remember we are all on the same side, and we have to start beating up on the Republicans instead of each other. And we all have to work together after this is over. There… now we’ve invoked Abe Lincoln, PT Barnum, and Karl Rove as well. This is just a local committee election, and David Upton is just a local hack who doesn’t compare to any of them.

Anonymous said...

David, you are a TRUE DEMOCRAT and have a GREAT FUTURE if the political hacks will step aside and let exciting, principled young men like you step up and take leadership roles. Keep the faith.

Anonymous said...

What the hell? This guy Anonymous sure does contradict himself from post to post! Oh, gee, that's me, isn't it?

LeftWingCracker said...

Yeah, you need to do something about those multiple personalities!
:-)

Anonymous said...

Kuhn also got more than half the votes on the straw poll for 2nd favorite choice which cuts down on the risks for jumping ship.

Anonymous said...

29 votes made up of non participants, alternates and delegates who "hope" to get on the Committee.

Anonymous said...

Matt Kuhn said he would not enter the run-off. Let's see if he keeps his word.

Anonymous said...

I thought the coalition's point of existence was to get the most executive members elected. I now doubt that.

anon said...

from what i hear - the "coalition" got about 25 EC members and Kuhn got elected on the first ballot. maybe a new wind has a chance to blow thru shelby county...

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