Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Its the Narrative, stupid

I was flipping between local coverage of the weather last night and national election coverage. The Republican narrative was typical, except they keep praising Huckabee for taking five states yesterday, ignoring the fact that he won Bible Belt states where the voters look like him. Huckabee has a couple more wins left in him in the South, Mississippi, Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana, and probably a caucus or two, but thats it. Romney is dead in the water unless a miracle happens. YEAH, we get to face...McCain.

More important was the coverage of Hillary. I am now pulling for Hillary mostly to be a contrarian, although I think she would be a stronger leader. Its funny that she is being criticized for being steadfast and refusing to change when the same commentators have being praising Bush for the last eight years for doing the same.

But now to the point, Russert, who apparently can't stay up late to cover anything, pointed out this morning that 2/3 of Hillary's donors are maxed out. More importantly, the next seven races heading into March 4 are going to go for Obama probably 7-0, maybe 6-1. They are caucuses and primaries in states with high African-American populations that decidedly favor Obama. Hillary is going to have to win Ohio and Texas on the fourth of March. No matter what the coverage for the next few weeks is going to be pro-Obama. Get ready, we are going for a brokered convention.

8 comments:

Sean Braisted said...

I am now pulling for Hillary

That was fast.

They are caucuses and primaries in states with high African-American populations that decidedly favor Obama.

Nebraska, Washington State, and Maine?

Also, Cardin won the Maryland primary over Mfume...so simply being black isn't a guaranteer of success in that state.

LeftWingCracker said...

Ahem, remember, JON wrote this post; I am still with BO....

Obama made sure that this won't be decided before Denver, and that's a GOOD thing...

Jon Carroll said...

I guess I should I left out a comma or a word choice. I meant to say primaries and also states with high African-American populations.

Being black isn't a guarantee, but it certainly does help, you cannot argue that. Cardin-Mfume is just you fishing for an example to prove your point.

Take South Carolina, I said this immediately after the election, Bill didn't cost Hillary the election there. She was already going to lose, Bill just made the differential greater by around 7-10 points. What it did do is cost her in Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee, and will cost her in Maryland, Virginia, DC, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana.

Sean Braisted said...

Jon,

No doubt black voters identify with Obama, just as she has an inherent base with white women. But I think Obama showed yesterday that he can do incredibly well in some very white states.

I think some of the difference is, Hillary's lead was in Democratic strongholds who lived like kings under the Clinton administration, whereas many of Obama's wins were in states who saw the negative effects that the Clinton name had on the down ticket races.

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