This Senate race seems out of Bizarro World. I was brought up in politics with the idea that the primary is where you solidified and won over your base, and that you chased independents (however many there were) and disaffected members of the other party in the General Election.
So far this year, we have watched the Goopers attack each other to the point where only now, AFTER the primary is over, that Gooper candidate Bob Corker is having to run around and shore up his base, and pray that they vote in November.
On the other side, after we were denied a primary by Chuck Schumer and his DSCC minions, Harold Ford continues to chase Republicans. It would appear that he acts as if his base was secured because he didn't have to go through one of those icky elections where he might have to campaign among his own people, FOR his own people's votes. After all, wasn't it bad enough that he had to represent Memphis, at least now he didn't have to reach out to them and MEET with them. Where did they have to go, anyway?
They really didn't have any choice, right? RIGHT?
Ford appears to have bought the DLC/DSCC bullshit that, despite polls that show 64% of Americans want us out of Iraq, well, YESTERDAY, that he has to show respect for the White House's horribly bungled position.
As Mr. R. Neal of Knoxville would have once said, OK then.
In an offyear election where, in every OTHER state in the union, you will have to win by turning out your base statewide, we have one candidate who is desperate to get his base to the polls, knowing that if they do, they will hold their nose and vote for him (Corker).
On the other side, we have a candidate who has run AWAY from his base as if they were the untouchables of India, praying that white people in East and Middle Tennessee who are publicly nice and civil to his face might actually vote for him if he makes them forget he's a Ford and he's from Memphis.
Kind of from Memphis, anyway.
He has to know, in his heart of hearts, if there is ANY South Memphis in him at all, that his only hope lies in the idea that the hard-core Bryant and Hilleary voters will continue their contempt for Corker and stay home. He's essentially trying to draw to an inside straight, and even HE knows it's not bloody likely.
So, what happens to Mr. Obama-before-Obama-arrived going to do if he is beaten in November? That may explain why he has refused to endorse anyone for his old 9th District Congressional seat.
Unless I have missed something major, Ford, the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate, has refused to endorse Steve Cohen, the Democratic nominee for his vacated seat. As we know, his ne-er-do-well brother Jake, who had to get a GED after leaving St. Albans, is running as an "independent Democrat" for that seat, as well.
Right, Jake, you and Joe Lieberman.
If Jake wins (not likely) and Harold loses (far more likely), what are the odds that Jake will have a mysterious reason for resigning a month or so into his term? Poppycock, you say, balderdash, you yell! Jake is his own man and would NEVER do that.
Is that why he still works for his father and lives in a house his father owns? I suggest that if enough race-baiting takes place and he pulls the upset, he gets told to step aside for big brother, and Harold returns to his old House seat without a whimper after a Bredesen appointment.
It's called a fail-safe for a reason, people.
Personally, I think that Cohen will win and win big, but I take Jake seriously, even though Jake's continued presence in the 9th District race is starting to hurt Harold around the Tennessee Democratic community already.
There are those in the African-American community, albeit a small minority, who are petrified that this seat could belong to a Caucasian, despite the fact that Cohen would be likely to fight for their interests much harder than the current Congressman has done in his decade-long career. While these folks are loud, I do not believe there are enough of them to make a difference.
If Harold Ford wants everyone to get behind his Senate campaign in the interest of unity and be a team player, he needs to set the example by endorsing the ENTIRE Democratic ticket, and do it soon.
Because, if he keeps running as if he is ABOVE the Democratic Party, he will find out that Republicans aren't the ONLY voters who can stay home Election Day.
10 comments:
I just got back in town from a business trip and, for the first time, saw some Jake signs in and around the Mound. Big signs, like banners, and always next to a Jr. sign.
I may be relatively new to Memphis, but I've seen my share of family dynasties, and Jake gives me pause. I hope Cohen is raising a lot of money right now, because I fear this could get ugly, and expensive.
Jake may just be a tool (and I choose my words carefully here) for his brother, but spliting the black vote in Memphis is a sure fire way for the seat to end up in Republican hands...and that worries me.
-v
The dynamics of this race make it one of the more interesting ones around. Some people say Jake Ford's entry into the race gives Mark White a shot at winning the seat, but others think Cohen and White are pulling from the same pile of votes.
I don't have a clue as to how this will go, but it certainly is more interesting than if a Dem and a Repub were lined up to run head to head. That race would go to the Dem.
Jake's being in the race is the conundrum. How will black voters go on this? Will blacks vote the person regardless of race? Well, they did in the Sheriff's race. However, there were significant numbers for Roderick Ford in his race against Jimmy Moore. Rod didn't make a speech, put up any signs, or even attempt to have a campaign. All he did was have the right last name and nothing scandalous in his past. Now we're seeing Jake Ford signs starting to go up in Germantown. Another legitimate question is what have the Ford's done for people in this district? Have they used their position to help their constituents or themselves? From what I've seen it has been the later. The poor black people don't seem to have a better situation than they did 30 years ago, but look at the lavish lifestyle of the Fords. They have gotten rich off the 9th district. They now drive around in expensive tour buses, high dollar suvs and live in homes that cost a half million or more. I'd say the Fords more closely resemble the rich white folk than the common black man.
It appears this is going to be a slugfest. Cohen has a long history of service to his constituents, both black and white. Will that pay off in this race? Steve is being endorsed by both mayors. Will that return big dividends for Steve? Can the mayors transfer their vote to Steve against an iconic family name?
I'm sure Mark White is thinking he has a chance due to the situation. If Jake weren't in the race, you could easily predict the outcome of this one. Since the reality is that the district is almost 2-1 Democrat, and there are two democrats running, now we have a three way split. There is no way the Republican voters will vote for a Ford. Many still remember the "East Memphis White Devils" comments from Harold, and they will do whatever they think is necessary to make sure a Ford isn't in that seat. Does that mean they will dump Mark and vote for Steve to ensure that Jake doesn't take the seat? I wonder if Las Vegas has this one on the boards?
Since I don't live in the district, I can't vote in this race. If I did, much as I like Mark White, I would be strongly tempted to vote for Cohen. This strategy is played out in numerous elections time and again. I voted for Bush over Kerry for a several reasons, but mainly because he was the lesser of the evils for me. There were many who did that same thing here in local races like the Sheriff's race.
If only I had a crystal ball!
The Republicans will turn out to vote because once again the Republicans are appealing to their (fear) base with the threat of two boys kissing with benefits.
If the anti gay marriage hadn't been on 11 ballots in 2004, Kerry would be President.
We can be sure the homophobes will turn out in full force to save the state of straight marriages, even though the divorce rate is infinitely higher in red states than in blue states. Details. Who can be bothered with details?
LWC
The following of what you said could be what all this push to get Jake elected is about. Do you think that is why TM flipped and igniting it on his sight?
If Jake wins (not likely) and Harold loses (far more likely), what are the odds that Jake will have a mysterious reason for resigning a month or so into his term? Poppycock, you say, balderdash, you yell! Jake is his own man and would NEVER do that.
I hope to post again later tonight about this, and link to Freedonian, too...
And I was just getting ready to modify mine to link back to this. Excellent piece, my friend.
Sgt Larry,
Lightning could strike Steve Cohen and Jake Ford, and Mark White would still struggle to come in third. It's just not that kind of district. What's more likely would be GOPer crossover to keep Ford out.
Sharon,
If the anti gay marriage hadn't been on 11 ballots in 2004, Kerry would be President.
Had TN been a battleground state, we would have had it on the ballot here in 2004. No one was projecting the state to be all that close, so they kept it as a hole card for this year.
Where, oh where would the GOPers be if there were no minorities to villainize?
Too much hustle. Not enough flow.
What is the problem that you have with cohen? he votes the right way 99.9% of the time....
Well, well, LWC, your scenario having Jake Ford win, only to hand over his seat to his brother in the event he loses his Senate race, is one I haven't thought about, but it's a very good one.
That's probably why Thaddeus Matthews is flipping out, and that's probably why Harold Sr is covering all bets. How is he going to keep making that paper as a lobbyist if he has no sons on Capitol Hill in either capacity?
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