Thursday, September 20, 2007

Three Enter, Only One Survives

Yes, it's me your favorite MemphisBlue. After setting up my own site, I realized the same thing I did in the past, me no have time. I have a son, a wife, and a full time plus job so I'm booking it from 7 AM to 11 PM every day. Therefore I asked my godfather if he minded if I occasionally posted to him, he said yes, so here we go.

Someone said something about an election coming up? Uhh, yes, Beavis there is one in two, count 'em, two weeks. Who will win, who should win, why, etc.

Council 1

Bill Morrison will, Antonio Parkinson should despite the middle name. Bill wins simply because he can.

Council 2

I don't know, I like Ivon Faulkner, but Scott Pearce's dad is nuts, so maybe he can pull it out. But my lithium pills say a runoff between Ivon and Brian Stephens

Coucil 3

This district borders mine, so I have Ike Griffith's headquarters two blocks from my house. That being said, I am going to pull a David Holt and predict a runoff between oh, lets says Coleman Thompson and Davida Cruthard.

Council 4

Lets se, two candidates, one is Wanda Halbert, okay this one is done. GO WANDA!!!!

Council 5

I like Jim Strickland, despite what I have said about him in the past. I still think he is a little lacking in the charisma department, but he would have won this seat four years ago if not for Carol Chumney, and it could be argued was screwed out of this seat then by her. As a result he has been raising money and pushing hard to win. Bob, well, Bob is Bob. Strickland can, should, and will win.

Council 6

My district, too many candidates are serious contenders to pick a winner in the first go around. Cliff Lewis has the Cracker support, Holt and MSDIA pick Reginald Milton, James Catchings has too many words on his signs, and the gorilla of Edmund Ford, Jr. is there. Milton probably should, I like Cliff, but lets say runoff between Milton and Ford.

Council 7

I like someone by the name of Poindexter being in the race just for giggles, but David's third cousin's sister's boyfriend's daughter's college roommate (what does that make them, nothing!) Barbara will win, just so she can go for an Erica Kane like name on the ballot next time

Council 8-1

I know him, I like him, he drives a hybrid, he is my mother-in-law's financial adviser, Ian Randolph can and will.

Council 8-2

Janice Fullilove in a walk.

Council 8-3

My personal animosity towards Del Gill aside, I wish Myron would run for Mayor. Myron with the third highest number of votes in the city behind two of the mayoral candidates. Sidenote: Del, I am voting for you.

Council 9-1

Scott Hale will win, no doubt about it.

Council 9-2

Damn you Richard Fields!!!! Shea will be helped by the fact that people might think it's his dad running, but not enough to take out Kemp Conrad, Kemp by 10. I like Shea and think and hope that I am wrong. Unlike the next race, I don't think a one on one runoff would have helped Shea unless 9-3 was up for grabs as well and then he would in a walk. He and Desi should do more campaigning together.

Council 9-3

Damn you again, Richard Fields!!!!!! He doesn't win that lawsuit in 1991, we probably never have Willie as mayor, and Desi would win in a runoff over Hedgepath. I just see Lester, Mary, and Boris siphoning off too many Mid-Town votes for her to win straight up. Desi should, but Reid will. Jack Sammons' appointed successor and the worst campaigner out there triumphs in the last council seat.

Clerk

Come on, be serious, Thomas Long by 35 points.

Mayor

Ah yes, the big enchilada, el grade burrito, the race. Uhhhhhmmmm, tacos supreme, uh back to the point of this all. The breakdown.

Herman is well qualified, some could argue the most qualified, the problem is that he has no charisma, and can not inspire me to want to vote for him. I know the paper and MSDIA endorsed him as did Leo Gray, but come on, he ain't beating WW Herenton.

Carol is a friend of the family. I like her. I can honestly say she looks like she has mellowed a little and has let go a little of the rigid control she has. That said, she is the Memphis Hillary Clinton, she is polarizing, you either like her or hate her. She got her dream for this race when only Herman Morris stepped in as a viable candidate. That said, Herman is going to siphon off a lot of votes she could have gotten.

Herenton, time to go. He is in this strictly as an ego stroke. He had a decent legacy, or would have if he had not decided to run again. He has not had support higher than 35 percent since the 99 preelection. He hasn't campaigned at all hardly, there are a few, but not a lot of Herenton signs in the Whitehaven area where I live in Graceland Subdivision.

Carol should win. Despite her polarizing nature, despite the fact she has been running for this seat since she lost the primary to AC for County Mayor, despite the rumors that she has had a hard time raising money at times, I feel she is the best candidate and will do a good job until she is defeated in four years.

However, that said, I can't shake my gut feeling, that Herenton will still win. He already has 32 percent of the vote. Chumney has around 33, and Morris around 30. Forget polls, these are pretty close to what the break down will be in the end unless things break hugely for Carol. That leaves around 5 or so percent of the vote to be grabbed. Most of that will go to Willingham. Carol has to basically stay ahead of Willie and not lose votes to Morris. She can win Morris voters at the debates, she isn't winning over Herenton voters.

Not getting endorsements except probably the Flyer will kill her. The Morris people think they can win with the endorsements. There more of them at midday at Cooper-Young this past weekend then there were Carol supporters. This doesn't bode well.

Carold should, Herenton will, therefore we all lose.

Out, I promise, this will be the last super long post.

8 comments:

Sharon Cobb said...

Welcome over here!

Regarding your fine post, I'd like to add that you left out the recount that I am sure you can anticipate!

I don't believe your Mayor will exit gracefully.

Ahhh Memphis!

David Holt said...

Pull a David Holt?!? Why I oughtta...

LeftWingCracker said...

I accidentally went into edit mode when I meant to post a comment, oops. I didn't change anything, though...

if Faulkner makes a runoff with Stephens, I will be shocked, but elated. Stephens wins, I think.

I would enjoy it if Randolph put a whoopin' on (NOT THE JUDGE) Joe Brown. You know, if Randolph were smart, he's slap a NOT THE JUDGE sticker on all of Brown's signs, he might win....

Back to 3, I REALLY, REALLY want Coleman Thompson to win, he is a good guy and he's busted his ass for everybody around town, his time has come.

Sarcasm noted on 9-1.

AS for the Mayor's race, well.....

Morris won't get above 20% unless he's handing out $100 bills at the polls. I still maintain that Carol will outdraw him in the African-American community, because Carol has worked with the community for nearly 20 years, and Morris has....
wait for it.....raised their utlility bills? other than Herman's family, two of his workers and one guy I work with, I know no other folks in the community who are backing Morris, and I DO get out.

As for HIZZONER himself, if he weren't trailing, he would not have raised a stink about the machines. He is trying to make it look like the election is being stolen from him, when we all know better.

My pick: Carol 43, WWH 33, Morris 19, Willingham 3, All Others 1.

Concerned said...

I love the people that try to seem intelligent by predicting a race by the number of signs they see. Signs don't vote, people.

District 1 will be a runoff between Morrison and Rudolph Daniels, who received the GOP endorsement. That endorsement equates to 30 - 35% in District 1.

District 2 will be a runoff between Stephens and Bill Boyd (see GOP endorsment above, except more important in District 2). By the way, ask Stephens how it feels to actually vote in a Memphis Municipal election for the first time.

Carol Chumney will not be our next Mayor. The "three egos" will split the anti-H vote and he wins. The H get out the vote caravan is in FULL force this year.

Jon Carroll said...

We have concern trolls..er. commentators. GOP all the way baby. Check out the signs for the majority of candidates, Name, brief tag, that's it. My problem with Catchings sign is that you are required to READ it, not simply glance at it and go. Much like a joke you have to explain, a sign you have to read has little impact.

Also, news flash, low numbers of street signs in what is supposed to be your home base of support is an indicator that you are taking people for granted and they may not come out for you. It is also a good indicator of where you can draw some votes from. Maybe I got behind Hedgepath too much??

MemphisPI said...

Regarding Concerned's comments.

That cliche about signs not voting is
true, I have never observed a sign in line at any voting location that I have been at. However the people in the house with the sign do vote and the sign tells you who they will vote for. Also the sign can represent the preferences of more than one voter.

publius said...

Don't you so-called "left wing","progressive" "TN liberals" have an answer for why Jim Strickland won't publish his campaign finance disclosure report and provide the public with what, he states on his website, they have a right to know? Do you all not think that is hypocrital of him?

While you're scratching your head trying to figure that one out, please include in your response how Mr. Strickland is going to avoid having a conflict of interest or the "appearance of impropriety" when as a city councilman his is called upon to consider and vote on matters of interest to his so-called contributors/"friends" (every wealthy businessman, real estate developer and zoning lawyer in town. No small contributors at all.) when they come before the council? Isn't he indeed compromised and doesn't his acceptance of so much from so few and his resulting endebtedness to them deny his constituets a real voice in city affairs?

Also, on a personal note, with all due respect to you guys, I am at a loss to understand how you can, with integrity, claim to be progressive liberals and then endorse a guy like Strickland,the former Shelby Co. Democratic Party Chairman, the darling of the status quo culture of corruption and self-serving politics in Memphis, who is law partners with the former Chairman of the Shelby Co. Republican Party and the two-time head of George W Bush's Presidential campaign in Tennessee?!!! Can you explain that too?
Good luck with this “mission impossible” if you choose to accept it.

publius said...

Another couple of days have gone by and Mr. "Left-wing Cracker" still can not explain the ethical inconsistencies of his endorsee, Jim "Stripland". He still can't explain how Mr. Stripland can take so much money from real estate developers and zoning variance lawyers, wealthy business people and out of town concerns and still loyally and fairly represent all of the other people (non-contributors)of Memphis?

If Stripland is elected, the regular peopleof Memphis lose everyday.

If city councilman Stripland votes on matters concerning his fat-cat "friends", his constituents, many of whom are people who want smart, planned, green, sustainable growth and a more civil society lose.

If councilman Stripland does not vote on matters concerning his fat-cat "friends", his constituents lose a voice in opposition.

Why should the voters in district 5 elect a guy who is so COMPROMISED?!

Also, Mr. "Left-wing cracker" still has not explained why Stripland says he believes voters should know who contributes to political campaigns and then will not publish his campaign finance discolure report to the public.

He's your pick Mr. LWC. Defend him. And, your rationale and credibility.

In doing so, make sure you answer the questions.