Friday, October 05, 2007

I am reeling a little bit here.

and I should go to bed, but I am trying to figure out how Chuck Mangione figures in our elections.

First, bravo to Shea Flinn and Jim Strickland on their victories, yay to Bill Morrison and Brian Stephens for their making runoffs in Districts 1 and 2.  My condolences to Desi Franklin, who might have won if there hadn't been other Democrats in the race; now we're stuck with Hedgepeth for four years, as Vibinc points at David Upton and screams "J'accuse!"  (David, however, for the record, steadfastly maintains that Mary Wilder contacted HIM to let him know that she was running and ask for his support.  Whatever, we're still stuck with Hedgepeth.)

Now, however, I must turn toward the old wizard of Banneker Estates himself and say, well played, sir, well played.  I suspect that you knew that not all of your old Republican friends had deserted you (John Ryder, I'm talkin' to YOU, pal) but couldn't afford to be seen supporting you.  What to do, what to do, wait, let's stick Herman Morris in the race, a black man who could play on liberal guilt, pull white votes away from Carol Chumney, but no African-American away from yourself, and enable one more victory where you could attack any of your non-supporters.

And, Morris got good old white Midtown liberals to buy into to all that guilt and vote for him, ensuring that the good Doctor would win one final term before he retires or is indicted.  I'm not surprised Republicans who feared the idea of a WOMAN running the city would buy into this.  However, with the exception of a couple of you that I understand would never support Carol (and I don't hold you responsible, either), for the rest of you, I have one question:

WHAT THE FUCK WERE YOU THINKING?????  Seriously, what the fuck were you THINKING?  Take the 21% away from Herman, and 15% would have gone to Carol, the rest to Willingham and we have a NEW MAYOR.  If Herenton is indicted, or continues to embarrass the city as he has for the last four years, it's YOUR FAULT.    Jesus H. Christ on a pogo stick, Don "No Soul" Simmons would have gotten more African-American votes than Herman Morris!  

You know, Carol handled her loss with grace, with candor, and with the strength and courage that has led me to support her for seventeen years.  This is not my loss, it's OUR loss, the CITY's loss, the REGION's loss.  And all because Herenton and some GOP Old Guard types played a bunch of Midtown liberals like a fucking Stradivarius.

You're goddamned right I'm mad, and I will be for a long time to come.  Carol will forgive and forget, because she is a far better person than I am, because I won't forget this for a LONG, LONG time.

End of rant, for now.


Jim Maynard said...

I don't regret voting for Herman Morris AT ALL. I did not support him out of "liberal guilt". I supported him because he had the courage to speak for gay and lesbian equal rights, Carol Chumney did NOT. I would rather have four more years of Herrenton than vote for another lukewarm "liberal" Democrat who is afraid to defend gays and lesbians.
(Morris deserved more support than he got, he was the best candidate.)

Jim Maynard said...

And maybe "Democrats" should stop ignoring their base to get elected..

eat said...

LWC: It really isn't helping matters any to insult people that voted for Herman Morris. It is particularly offensive to suggest that it was 'white liberal guilt.' Does that even still exist? Many people that admire Chumney simply felt that Morris would make a better mayor, and hoped he could win. Please funnel some of that energy into lobbying for a runoff in the mayoral race as part of the charter rewrite. And quit calling people morons (or whatever).

Freedonian said...

Jesus H. Christ on a pogo stick, Don "No Soul" Simmons would have gotten more African-American votes than Herman Morris!

How many do you think it will turn out that Carol got?

In her own way, she ran a Southern Strategy of a kind--- It was simply unthinkable to her that a white vote might go to anyone but her. And she felt she could live without those black votes as long as Morris and Herenton were going to split the black vote down the middle.

As much as we complain about racial identity politics in this city, there was no greater practitioner of it than Carol Chumney in this cycle. It was a ploy that di not work.

And while we're berating the CA for the last minute poll boosting Morris--- Take another look at it and turn this thing on its head. I told you months ago that the early polling was oversampling whites in this city. And those early polls put Chumney at roughly 35% with a large swath of undecided.

Her final numbers were within the margin of error for that poll. For it to have ever been accurate, that would mean that she managed to sway not a single undecided vote.

So was it really that they did something wrong by stating that Morris's numbers were the only ones moving upward, or was it that they did something wrong by inflating Chumney's odds to start with?

LeftWingCracker said...

Well, brother, I'm going to need to see the precinct breakdowns for that. I think when it shakes out that she got less than she thought she would get, certainly, in the African-American community, but good lord, man, it's not as if we campaigned in sheets.

I knew that this was going to be tough this year, but Morris made it that much more difficult.

As others have posted, we all need to look at a 30% turnout; that speaks more to the whole issue of why we are all reeling this morning.

Guess Cohen's safer this morning, eh? :-)

Anonymous said...

LWC, I'm not sure I buy into your "Herman as sttoge" theory; but your perceptions are better than your critics'.

Freedonian said...

No--- Chumney did not campaign in a white sheet any more than Herenton ran on a "kill whitey" platform.

But neither of them showed any strong interest in talking to anyone outside their own demographic. Of the four candidates to actually make it to TV, only Herman Morris didn't play the racial identity politics strategy.

When we see the final numbers, I believe we'll see that Morris was the only one to get significant votes from both blacks and whites.

You and I both heard it from her supporters at the debate party. It was unthinkable to them that whites or women could vote for anyone but her. I think both of those are dangerous assumptions to make.

But yeah, you're right--- Cohen is safer today because of Chumney's loss. Too bad her staff berated and further alienated his supporters.

Will Beaty said...

Maynard, why are you still even posting? You got what you want!

Somehow, in your mind, Carol not visiting a Pride parade or filling out some jacked up survey equals Herenton being a better mayor. Well, congrats. You won. I'm sure the gay community will just thrive now!

I completely agree with LWC about Morris' numbers and support being mostly about white guilt. Every "MIdtown liberal" who supported Morris because you thought that the white candidate could never win should really question your political instincts. Maybe there's a special hat you can wear so we can tell you apart from the rest of us.

I feel like the cover of the Commercial Appeal today should be Carol holding a "Only Morris can Win!" sign while flipping off the camera.

Will Beaty said...

"No--- Chumney did not campaign in a white sheet any more than Herenton ran on a "kill whitey" platform."

Let's be fair. Herenton's racial propaganda is way close to "kill whitey" than you're suggesting.

Jon Carroll said...

just trying to cheer people up with a feeling good post

Jon Carroll said...

find it funny that both gay men and people who hate gays are supporting Herman Morris, for someone who attacks everyone for not supporting gay rights, it struck me as hypocritical that Maynard did not call out Herman for his endorsements and support by Leo Gray and others who want the right to preach against homosexuality.

Jim Maynard said...

John etal.
On Herman Morris being endorsed by Leon Gray and other homophobes.. I don't hold a candidate responsible for all the people who endorse him. (There were many anti-gay Republicans who supported Carol Chumney!) They did NOT endorse Morris because of his support of equality for gays.
And perhaps you didn't see my statements in the Commercial Appeal on the irony of Leon Gray endorsing Morris and Morris's response, which was he supports both Leon Gray's religious freedom and my rights by opposing discrimination against gays.. which I think made Morris a UNITER.

Jim Maynard said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Freedonian said...

Every "MIdtown liberal" who supported Morris because you thought that the white candidate could never win should really question your political instincts.

And anyone who read "she couldn't win" into anything that's been written here is kind of a droolie.

She could have won. If she had, you know, maybe thought about firing some of the brain dead staff that were pissing off white liberals faster than she could talk to them. She also might have considered venturing into a neighborhood now and again that didn't have a majority white population.

She "could" have won if she had the right strategy. She did not. She did absolutely nothing to win. Her numbers did not move from the very first poll. The day she filed her petition, she already had every vote she was going to get. In her mind, running against two black men meant that every white was sure to vote for her.

It ain't about who could have won-- That was a discussion for yesterday. This is about the who and why.

LeftWingCracker said...

there have been some great comments here, but my question is this: how much of this was race, and how much of this was GENDER?

How much of this was simply that Memphians weren't ready to vote for a woman? Why did people who were always ready to vote for her for a legislative position abandon her when she sought an EXECUTIVE position?

I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'...

Freedonian said...

Brother Cracker, I'm sure there might have been a few cavemen out there that weren't ready to vote for a woman. I suspect, however, that someone with an anti-female bias is more likely to have another bias on top of that one that would be more likely to take priority.

I'm looking forward to seeing the breakdowns. I kept hearing people saying over and over that she was going to pull it out because black women would vote for her to get a woman into office. Problem is that instead of talking to them, she took them for granted, and I don't think the numbers will tell us they swung her way. Why would they?

There are plenty of characters in politics, male, female, black, white, etc that I would vote for in a legislative position but not an executive one. If I was in her district and she ran for the state legislature or city council again, I would have no great problem voting for her. Some unseemly grandstanding aside, she performed capably, if not admirably.

I'm sure she'll tell herself it's sexism. At the end of the day, it's really not. She's just not as popular as she thought she was.