Thursday, July 22, 2010

Interesting Trends Developing in Early Vote

You can find the daily totals updated here.  To this point, let's see what the voter trends look like:

More women than men? Check
More Democrats than Republicans? Well, yes, but not to the same degree as 2006 or 2008.
More Blacks than Whites? NO.

Que?  In a County that's majority African-American?  What gives here?

I think it's a conundrum for many in the community.  For those who feel no loyalty to former Mayor Herenton, it's full speed ahead for Cohen and the Democratic ticket.  For a lot of people, though, they are happy with Steve Cohen and want to keep him in Washington as their Congressman.

And yet.....    

They remember that Dr. Herenton is a historic figure, a man who brought hope to a beleaguered people years ago.  In their heads, the community can't conceive of the Doc in Washington, but in their hearts, it would be a betrayal to vote against him.  When they see him on the street, they give him the love and respect due a figure of his stature, but they know he would be a disaster in Congress.

What do you do when you can't vote for OR against someone?  You don't vote, you stay home, and that's what appears to be happening here so far.

While that's terrific for Steve Cohen, for the rest of the Democratic ticket, it could be a disappointment of epic proportions.  The Democratic County ticket HAS to have a good turnout, because the GOP is motivated, and I suspect that many Republicans, having determined that Bill Haslam will be their gubernatorial nominee, have jumped into the Democratic primary to vote for Steve Cohen, and then vote for the GOP County ticket.

Which, of course, stinks for Joe Ford, Randy Wade, Regina Newman and the rest of the ticket.  SCDP, if you've ever pulled out the stops, you had damn well better do it now.  Steve Cohen's ballot won't do it alone, it's time to have phone banks going full steam from now to August 5, or we're going to be saying Hi to Mayor Luttrell, Sheriff Oldham, and other GOP officials.

That's NOT something I want to see now, or in the future.

7 comments:

autoegocrat said...

Great post. The Joe Ford campaign needs some volunteers, like now.

deaconcarol said...

Could someone please tell me why I, as a democrat, vote for Joe Ford? I think the mayor's position is too important just to cast my vote for the democratic nominee. Mr. Ford has not shown me that he is capable of administrating at the mayoral level. I see nothing in his history to support his claims of good governance.

Steve Steffens said...

Well, let me attempt to answer that. Leaving the partisan rhetoric out for a minute, I think you should realize that in almost eight years as a County Commissioner, and then these last few months as Mayor, Joe Ford has become intimately familiar with EVERY aspect of Shelby County Government.

Mark Luttrell is a nice man and I have no ill will toward him, but the man, to my knowledge, has never worked outside of Law Enforcement. He's never had to deal with issues like Public Health (THE MED), Education, setting tax rates, or any of the other myriad workings of the government.

deaconcarol said...

Thank you for your thoughtful response. I am not sure that being a good legislator transfers to being a good administrator. Mr. Luttrell has demonstrated that he does have administrative skills as sheriff, which is what is needed as mayor.

I have to confess that I have trouble with placing any trust in Mr. Ford. He is a proven liar.
Mr. Ford would not be serving as mayor if he had been truthful before the Commission who put him into his current position.

And I confess, that Mr. Ford is to me a member of the same cadre of dismal leaders from the local democratic party we have had over the last 16 years, with the exception of Congressman Cohen.

I will vote for the Democratic ticket because I am truly an old yellar dog democrat, but I will leave the box for mayor blank.

sbanbury said...

DeaconCarol,
I meet with Joe Ford once a month with a group of a couple dozen neighborhood and sustainability advocates where he assembles the heads of all the applicable County Departments. It is by far the best access and response we've ever seen from the mayor of either government. Joe is not to be confused with any other Ford and the professional staff I know--most of 'em--think he's the best manager they've ever had. Call me if you want to know more. 901-619-8567

Latilleon said...

I wonder if that is the reason people aren't coming out. Even if black voters are conflicted about Cohen versus Herenton, I would suspect support for Ford and Wade would be enough to make voting a priority. I wonder if its just apathy and black voters just don't care about this election. I also have difficulty believing that white voters are enthused about anything but Cohen vs. Herenton. Could it be that the Shelby County GOP has convinced voters that normally vote on election day to vote early? I think the SCDP need to used the current numbers to push voters out to the polls.

I will be very interesting to see the numbers for today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) when people are off.

MemphisPI said...

LWC, Why can't the Shelby Democrats put forth a better slate of candidates?

It's hard to be a responsible democratic voter in Shelby County. Some of these candidates have had personal financial problems yet want to be responsible for public money.

Jr. shows up for a few hours and that is suppose to get me to vote for his brother. I wasn't sad to see Jr. leave. Ditto for Sr. by the way.

Give me a good Democratic candidate and I will vote for them every time.