Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Edwards continues to move closer in Nevada

Leslie Byrd forwarded this article to me about Edwards' poll numbers surging in Nevada, and asked me to note the following:

Three instructive notes about these numbers:

1. This poll was taken after New Hampshire and yet John gained nearly 15 points, demonstrating he has the momentum going into the caucus.

2. This poll was taken after the Culinary Workers Union endorsement. So any bump Obama got from that endorsement should be reflected here.

3. There is still 9% undecided. Moreover, given the unique nature of the caucus, Gravel and Kucinich will likely not be viable and there 1% will most likely go to Edwards on second choice votes. Thus, in practical terms (or caucus terms) the numbers are actually more like O-32% H-30% E-29% --- with a 4.5% margin of error.

The message in all this:


1 comment:

Sean Braisted said...

Hillary is most likely going to win this caucus...if polling data holds true, she has amazingly high support in the Hispanic community, coupled that with her gender-based support, and the fact that she has led by large margins in all but one poll, she should be considered the front runner in this state.