Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Either this is an error or this is an epochal swing..

Thanks to my friend Ken, I was greeted in my email box this morning with this SurveyUSA poll of the Senate race.

That it showed Corker with a 48-46 lead (6% undecided, MOE =/- 4.2%) was not the surprise here. That it showed that 23% of African-Americans were voting for Bob Corker WAS a surprise. Thaddeus may say it's not a surprise, but I say it's a crock.

On what alternate universe does 23% of African-American voters go against Ford? I am now beginning to question ANY poll out there after this. Your thoughts?


bob said...

I just now asked an African-American woman, age 80-ish, and she said she's tired of the Fords. "Ophelia is crazy. And that Jake ought to shut up and sit down!"

That's a sample of one. But I've come to believe there are a significant number of blacks who feel pretty much as she does. 23% is not unreasonable.

Same is true of Herenton. People are getting sick and tired of him, too.

Freedonian said...

I was looking at an apartment last year, and the office manager was an elderly black lady.

She was showing me the place and said "You don't run with no rough crowd, do you?"

I looked at her and said "Well ma'am, I AM a Democrat."

She said "Well, as long as that Willie Herenton don't come over. I'll chase him off if he does."

I think Bob's right. I don't know if I would go as high as 23%--- Survey USA has been caught oversampling conservatives before. I would guess that it's more like 19-20%, which puts it within the MOE. I would have a hard time fathoming 23% of black voters going for a Republican candidate, but Harold Ford is the kind of Dem that could make it happen.

PeskyFly said...

It wouldn't shock me to discover 15-20%

LeftWingCracker said...

Gentlemen, I respect all of you, but come on, this is a FIRST election.

As in, Ford would be the FIRST African-American Senator elected from the South since Reconstruction.

Maybe i've been in Memphis too long, but whenever this situation has presented itself, the African-American community has marched almost in lockstep behind the black candidate.

If Ford gets ANYTHING less than 90% of blacks statewide, he is toast on a stick. And, I'm hardly a Ford apologist.

Ned Williams said...

Freedonian, Actually, Ford is PRECISELY the type of Dem--policy-wise, to bring all black voters "home," because of his purported social consevatism. His family, perhaps, may have begun to bother black voters. But 23 percent seems impossible.

Sharon Cobb said...

23 percent of the African American vote for Corker is ludicrous.
There is no major election in American history where almost one quarter of the African American voters voted for a Republican.

At most, Corker will get 6 percent of the African American vote, and I'm being generous.

Formerly Considered Moderate said...

Commenting on the last comment - Unless its an African-American Republican...there are quite a few out there.

Sid said...

The only way I've been able to ponder this is by taking the fact that there wasn't an option for Hispanic in the poll. So maybe Hispanic voters voting for the illegal-immigrant sympathist (Corker) instead of the "crack down on illegals" candidate (Ford) got funneled into the "black" demographic.
That's the only way it makes sense, to me. And that's still a stretch.

Brad Watkins said...

Sorry...just cannot buy it....23%...smells fishy