I see what you did there, Commissioner Ford

Commissioner Justin Ford is in a tough re-nomination fight for his re-drawn County Commission seat.  During the redistricting, the parts of South Memphis surrounding the family funeral home at Florida and South Parkway were taken from him and given to Commissioner Walter Bailey.  Now, Ford's seat is primarily composed of Whitehaven and Westwood; while he is certainly known there, his strength is not as solid there as it was in South Memphis.

Add to that two fierce primary opponents in former MCS Board Commissioner Patrice Robinson and Memphis Education Association President Keith Williams, and the Commissioner faces the toughest campaign that he has had to face as a candidate.

All of that puts today's interesting development into context.

My phone blew up this morning with news that the Commissioner was planning to challenge Congressman Steve Cohen - as an INDEPENDENT.  This would have enabled him to avoid a primary; however, it would not have looked good if he were a sitting Democratic elected official who was undermining another Democratic nominee, regardless if it were the incumbent, Steve Cohen, or one of his challengers..

Then, it turns out that the petition was pulled but never filed, and by what Ford described as a "community group" that was not happy with the list of Democratic candidates for TN-09 and wanted him to run.  Ford was later quoted as saying that he may consider a Congressional run in two years.

UPDATE:  This is being edited to reflect new information, stop here and go read Jackson Baker, who, as always, has the full details.

Shocked, Shocked I Am!

The Commercial Appeal commissioned Yacoubian & Associates to poll the city about Mayor Wharton and the 9th CD about Steve Cohen.

I know this may be stretching the limits of disbelief, but..... Memphians seem to love BOTH of them and plan to re-elect them, Wharton this year and Cohen next year.  Astonishing, isn't it?  Wharton comes in at a 61% net positive rating, while Cohen is at 62%.  The CA on Cohen:

Cohen had a net positive score of 62 percent among 220 likely voters within the 9th Congressional District — 69 percent approval minus 7 percent disapproval. The poll found 75 percent of African-American women approved of his performance, 73 percent of African-American men, 72 percent of white women, and 53 percent of white men.

What?  African-Americans approve of Cohen?  Who knew? Yeah, but approval is one thing, but voting is another.  Why, just look at this:

Of the 221 9th District likely voters considering Cohen’s 2012 re-election, 63 percent said they would vote for Cohen, 4 percent preferred “another Democrat,” 6 percent wanted a Republican and 28 percent were unsure.

Yep, Cohen's a goner next year, he's only up 2-1 if all the unsures vote against him! Oh, wait.....

Yes, we are roughly 13 1/2 months away from the August 2012 Democratic Primary.  Yes, more African-Americans will move in from TN-08.  I have news for you: Frayser, North Memphis and Raleigh are all in the Memphis media market, and I suspect they know perfectly well who Steve Cohen is and will be delighted to have him rather than the Gospel-Singing Farmer From Frog Jump.

Whomever decides to run against Steve Cohen is going to have an uphill battle, because his constituents approve of him and have no current reason to unseat him.  If anyone wants to try, good luck to them, because they will need it.

More Thoughts on TN-09

Here are the newspaper articles published so far on Tomeka Hart's announcement that she is challenging Steve Cohen in the 9th District Democratic Primary:

JB/Flyer
Commercial Appeal
Daily News
Tri-State Defender

In the Defender article, I found this Hart quote fascinating:

Her decision to run is not driven by any actions or inactions of Cohen, Hart said.

Really? 

Certainly, she has the right to run.  However, in order to challenge AND defeat a popular incumbent in a primary, one must usually have two rationales for getting elected.  First, one needs to provide a compelling reason that the incumbent is insufficiently representing the district and HOW the the incumbent is insufficient, i.e, what's he done wrong? Second, you must then show a compelling reason why YOU are the one to replace the incumbent.

To this point, she says she will fully develop her reasons later, and that's kind of understandable, as she has yet to file her petition and the actual election is over a year away.  However, given Cohen's popularity with his district (his last two primaries gave him over 75% of the vote each time), she might not want to wait all that long.

She has smartly stated that race is no reason to even consider changing representatives, and I agree; it's all about the politics and where they stand on the issues.  I don't care about color, I care if they are far enough left to suit me.  Senior was, Junior wasn't and Cohen certainly is.  Ms. Hart, I don't know.

The point is, while I understand that she has ambition and a decent record so far on the MCS Board, she will have many questions to answer about why Cohen should be replaced, and replaced by her.

This is a Democratic electorate that rarely, if ever, unseats an incumbent in the primary in ANY elected office, much less a Congressional seat, so her work is clearly cut out for her.  We'll see if Ms. Hart and her team are ready for prime time!

I Guess Tomeka Hart Believes Her Own Press Clippings

Because she has decided to take on the fool's errand of challenging Steve Cohen in the 9th District primary in 2012.

Really?  While I fully expect that North Memphis, Raleigh and Frayser will be added to the 9th District for the next decade, I have seen nothing to indicate anywhere that there is a groundswell to replace our current Congressman.

Does she have enough money to challenge Steve, who will have a serious warchest ready to go for any primary run?  Does she understand that the very same people who stood by her as she pushed for the MCS-SCS merger are very likely to also be some of Steve's biggest supporters?  On what issues does she feel Steve Cohen is deficient?

I want to believe that she is not going to run the same idiotic race-based campaign that sunk Nikki Tinker and Dr. Herenton; I want to believe she is above that, because, until this point, I have had no reason to believe otherwise.

Tomeka, you DO have a future in politics in this city and county; why hurt it by challenging Cohen?  Think about this before you go through with it, because it's YOUR career and no one else's career that will be hurt if you do this.

In the event you have not seen this yet

Please go read Jackson Baker's latest post on Dr. Herenton's campaign, with two videos taken during his speech to supporters at Councilor Joe Brown's office at Jackson & Watkins.  I am not even showing you the videos, go over there and watch.

And shake your head at the self-destruction of a legacy.

Shorter Tri-State Defender: We DO Need Just One, But Herenton is NOT That One

The Defender endorses Cohen after a long and thoughtful article.

Here are the money quotes, first on the Doc:

So here is the question: Does Dr. Herenton represent the galvanizing leadership that will spur the organization and aggregation of talent and resources needed in the African-American community in Memphis to demand its place at the aforementioned tables through the role of 9th Congressional District Congressman and in doing so improve the quality of life for all Memphians?  Given the damage that has been done to his image and the relationship with other leaders and voters in the community it would prove difficult for him to be that guiding and galvanizing force. Additionally, consider the fact that he would be a freshman Congressman at 70 years of age with no seniority and little political capital in Washington. The answer to the question is NO.  Dr. Herenton remains a significant and relevant leader in our community and we believe he has a tremendous role to play in fostering positive change for Memphis and Shelby County. However, his most effective place to affect change is not necessarily as an elected official but as a steward and agent of change within the community.

Dr. Herenton’s candidacy is important and should serve as a wake-up call to current and up-and-coming African-American leaders that we must get it together and move together in the “house” towards strengthening the “family”. 

 Then, about Cohen:

Congressman Cohen clearly has been an effective legislator over the course of his two terms and certainly during his tenure in the Tennessee General Assembly. He has been a champion for causes and policy intended to positively impact the African-American community. He has built relationships and worked across racial and political aisles as a masterful diplomatic statesman. Ultimately he has done everything he could do to best represent the broad interests of the constituents he represents.

Congressman Cohen’s positions, relationships and proposed legislation are all on point towards bringing to bear a climate that will allow for positive changes in the 30 percent poverty rate, double-digit unemployment, negligible business revenues, high rate of illness and health challenges and 40 percent dropout rate. Ultimately to truly improve the plight of Memphis, we must have leadership derived from within the African-American community that identifies with and intrinsically understands the “family”.  No matter how empathetic, Congressman Cohen will never be the direct catalyst to initiate and foster the change necessary for the African-American community in the 9th District and beyond to make significant strides in meeting the challenges that we face. In fact it can and will only come from within. 

Here's a new Cohen ad!

Just. One. Leftie.

Brothers and sisters of the progressive movement, if you look at a map with pictures of all the Tennessee Congresspeople, what do you see?  We have four hardcore GOP righties, three Blue Dogs, one guy who can't decide whether he's a Blue Dog or a weak progressive, and we have Steve Cohen.

That's right, folks. Just. One. Leftie.  And there are people in our district who want to take him away from us, even though he has worked harder for his district than anyone since Harold The Elder.

Please, people.  All I want is Just. One. Leftie.

Yet there are those who say we have no diversity because we have no one of color representing Tennesseans.  Well, brothers and sisters, need I remind you that our last Representative prior to Steve Cohen was a Dog who was Bluer than Blue?  How'd that work out for ANYONE?  He was only out for himself; thankfully, he's New York's problem now.

All Steve Cohen has done is do the best job possible for his constituency, and, for the most part, they are pleased with his work.  They know (and HE knows) that he HAS to deliver, has to do better than anyone else doing the same job (and how's THAT for delicious irony, eh?).  All so we can have Just. One. Leftie.

You think you can find a Leftie in East Tennessee, or at least, one that can get elected?  What about the rural areas, where you only find Democrats who try to sound as much like Republicans as possible.  That leaves the 9th District, where we have Just. One. Leftie.

And that, my brothers and sisters of the 9th Congressional District, is all I really ask for this year.  We know that the Doc has no real campaign other than to remind every one that he was the first elected mayor, the first superintendent, and now he wants to be the THIRD Congressman of Color. He'll be just as bored in DC as he was here, and we don't need him.

Why?  Because we have Just. One. Leftie.

Let's keep it that way, shall we?

Look what I missed due to the heat!

Thankfully, Jackson Baker DIDN'T miss it, and is responsible for this footage of the speech of Steve Cohen's challenger:

Some notes on TN-09

I arrived after the speechifying yesterday at Congressman Cohen's headquarters opening, so I missed him calling the Doc a Coward, but I don't think it was a bad thing; why should a former Golden Gloves champion be scared of two old reporters?

At the end of the day, it's just that the former Mayor is trying to control his media coverage as he did when he was in City Hall; however, as he has no real power any more, it becomes nothing more than an attempt to get free media, since he can't seem to raise much money on his own.

In fact, if I were to sum up the Doc's campaign in three letters, it would be WTF?

There are ways to campaign against Steve Cohen that might work, but it doesn't seem that the Doc is planning on trying any of them.  By trying to race-bait Cohen, one could almost suggest that if the races were reversed, Herenton is running like an old segregationist from the late 50s and early 60s.

On the merits, Cohen is essentially unassailable from a Democratic and progressive standpoint; one could argue that only Harold Ford Senior has done as much for the African-American community in terms of 9th District Congressmen.

The real question here is this:  Why is the Doc running?  What does he have to prove?  He has never lost an election, to be sure, but remember two things here: 1) he has NEVER run in a party primary before and 2) his elections have always been in October or November.

Let's look at that latter part in particular.  The African-American community has never voted as heavily in August primaries as they have in October or November general elections. This fact is a major reason the GOP has continued to dominate County offices, whose elections are held with the state & federal primaries in August.  I have a solution for that, if anyone is willing to listen.

The Doc is also running for a LEGISLATIVE position, when he has spent the majority of his professional career as an administrator.  In this area, whenever legislators run for executive positions or vice versa, they have not been successful.  In the first instance, only Wyeth Chandler (1971) and Jim Rout (1994) come to mind.

Only LAMAR! Alexander has done what Doc is attempting to do, and that was after a several-year gap between his governorship and his race for the US Senate.  In short, it's hard to imagine a 70-year-old freshman Congressman, especially someone like Doc, who is expected to sit down and do as he is told, which is the rule for all freshmen.

So, why is he running?  Is he bored? Is he doing this to get back at Cohen for some imagined slight?  At the end of the day, he risks destroying what is left of his legacy, with real Nixon-in-62 potential here.  Considering that, to give the man full credit, his first two terms were arguably the best of any Mayor of Memphis in my 38 years here, this is remarkably sad.

Why, Doc?  This really just doesn't make sense to anyone, and it will only hurt you in the end.

You gotta read this...

For the best analysis I've yet read on the impending 9th District race between Steve Cohen and ex-mayor Willie Herenton, go read POLAR DONKEY now!

Interesting post, eh?

Brother Carroll's fire and brimstone post about Steve Cohen's challenger was interesting, but I am not sure I can go there with him.

First, I am not at all convinced that Dr. Herenton can win this race. His campaign is essentially the same campaign with which Nikki Tinker ran twice and got pounded. A-ha, you say, but this is a historic figure we're talking about, the first African-American superintendent of Memphis City Schools and the first elected African-American Mayor of Memphis.

Well, he's not running for either of those, and he wouldn't be the first African-American Congressman from the 9th District, he would be the THIRD. Lots of people do love him in this city and he will always hold a special place in their hearts. Lots of those folks will go up and give him love and wish him the best and tell the Doc that they are behind him all the way.

And then, they will go vote for Steve Cohen because Cohen gets things done for the entire community, but the African-American community in particular.

The hardcore group of people who have never strayed from Dr. Herenton in all those races tend to vote in general elections in October and November. An August Democratic primary? Not so much. If they HAD voted in large numbers in a Democratic primary, the Democrats would have gained control of Shelby County government a decade ago; instead, they are still trying to win a majority of these elections.

A heavy Democratic turnout would certainly be welcome, but pardon me if I remain skeptical. Dr. Herenton apparently plans to run a campaign from the streets that says "we have no African-American Congressman from Tennessee, therefore vote for me". His only real hope is that he can trick congressman Cohen into putting his foot in his mouth and turn off African-American voters.

Congressman Cohen's predecessor, Harold Ford Jr., was African-American and he absolutely threw his constituency under the bus when he was technically our Congressman, voting for the Bankruptcy Bill and campaigning like he was a farmer from Lawrence County rather than as a Memphian. He was like his father only in that they shared the same name and look somewhat alike; otherwise, nada.

If Dr. Herenton wanted to run an issues-based campaign, he could probably pull it off, as he is an arduous campaigner; no one ever said he would be a slacker on the campaign trail. However, why is he running a campaign that has failed miserably twice? Here, he is NOT the historical figure, he is running to be one of 435 instead of running to be one of one.

Everyone is nervous, and I have no doubt the Doc will pull votes out of nostalgia, but I do NOT think he will beat Steve Cohen.

If he does, that says more about our city that I want to know.

It's ON, BAYBEE!!!!!!

The Thrilla in Manila won't have anything on next year's TN-09 race, as Mayor Herenton made it official today by filing his paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for the 9th District seat held by Steve Cohen.

I had thought he was bluffing in order to push Rep. Cohen into speeding up the process of selecting a new US Attorney for the Western District of Tennessee. However, I'm sure when he heard about the new alliance between old adversaries Cohen and Harold Ford Sr., he decided that it was damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.

Here are my pros and cons for Herenton as he runs.

Pro: He has a very solid base that has come out for him in every single mayoral election.

Con: He has only achieved a majority in one of the last three elections (2003, when he faced John Willingham), and it is not at all clear that people who vote for him for Mayor will vote for him for Congress. It's difficult for legislators to get elected to administrative positions and vice versa.

Pro: He has a large donor base.

Con: Not as large as it used to be, which is not good because, by federal law, he CANNOT use any of the money in his mayoral campaign account for the Congressional campaign, meaning he starts from zero in a bad economy. Better get on those phones, Mr. Mayor.

Pro: The Democratic primary is going to be primarily African-American, which should favor Herenton.

Con: While it's true that African-Americans will make up a vast majority of the electorate, this WMC-TV poll indicates the community is very happy with Steve Cohen and will vote to keep him in Washington.

Pro: Since there will be a heavily-contested Republican primary for Governor, Republicans won't cross over to vote for Cohen.

Con: While this is true, if the WMC poll is accurate, it won't matter.

Pro: People who hate the Mayor may well vote for him to get him out of town.

Con: Not in enough numbers to make a difference; after the MSARC fiasco, no one really wants him anywhere in government.

No one doubts the Mayor will pull out every stop imaginable against the Congressman, who needs to let Herenton make as big an ass of himself as possible. Cohen needs to play mistake-free campaigning, with as few slip-us as possible.

All things being equal, I see Cohen winning, making for a truly grim last year in office for Mayor Herenton, for whom the arrow is pointing down.

Expounding on the poll

This, I believe, is a combination of things. First, people of all colors, races, religions, etc. are HAPPY with Steve Cohen representing the 9th District in Washington. Memphians are notorious for keeping legislators in legislative positions and not letting them move into executive positions, and vice versa.

As hard as Cohen has worked in and for the African-American community, it is not surprising that they have responded so favorably.

As for the Mayor, well, that's another story. 16 years in office, especially as high-profile as the Mayor has been, can wear down any group of constituents. As Steve Ross notes in this comment, Herenton only got 42% of the vote last year. Had Morris dropped out, Carol Chumney would have won.

This, of course, is even before you get into the ongoing investigation of the Mayor. My own belief on this is, if you have something, it had better be strong and not just grasping for straws. Unless you have videotape AND a smoking gun, leave it alone, the city can't handle that much stress right now.

In any event, the Mayor is weakened right now, and while I don't doubt his base areas would support him against the Congressman, this race seems ill-advised. However, it should teach the Congressman NOT to take anything for granted, and ALWAYS keep fundraising!

I waited until midnight to post this

From Yacoubian Research:

In a race between Congressman Steve Cohen and Mayor Willie Herenton, who would you vote for for Congress?

1. Steve Cohen - 65%
2. Herenton - 14%
3. Undecided - 20%

How would you rate Congressman Steve Cohen's job performance?

84% said excellent or good.

This information is due to be published in the Commercial Appeal tomorrow morning and was reported during the 10 PM (CDT) news broadcast on WMC-TV Channel 5 in Memphis.

This poll was commissioned and paid for by WMC-TV in Memphis for their exclusive on-air use. Here is a link to more detailed survey results and methodology via WMC's website: http://www.wmctv.com/global/Story.asp?s=10265453

For post 1100, let's talk about the 9th District

Got here quick from 1000, didn't we?

Now, to some things on my mind. Wendi Thomas, with whom I've not always agreed, wrote a very meaningful column today about the 9th District race between our incumbent congressman, Steve Cohen, and Nikki Tinker.

Wendi goes right after EMILY'S LIST's endorsement of Tinker, given the fact that Tinker has not exactly set the woods on fire with her support of reproductive rights. Here's a taste:

But neither on Tinker's Web site nor on the EMILY's List site does Tinker clearly declare her support for a woman's right to choose. Instead, the EMILY's List site has this from Tinker: "We must do a better job of helping young women avoid pregnancy through education, abstinence, and access to safe, affordable birth control. ... I also support programs to encourage adoption and expand access to prenatal care for poor women."

Contrast that with the quote on the site from another EMILY's List endorsee, Judy Baker, running for a Congressional seat in Missouri: "I will fight to preserve Roe v. Wade's status as established law."

Now, that's the kind of bold stance pro-choice women like to hear, not fence-straddling talk about abstinence education.

Exactly. The simple fact that Tinker has been markedly vague about ALL of her issues (whatever they may be) has turned people off to her campaign. When you have an incumbent (who is tough enough to beat just for that reason alone) who has an impeccable record of service to first his Senate and then his Congressional district, you have to prove malfeasance or dereliction of duty in order to unseat them. Given the fact that he's the hardest-workin' man in Congress, how CAN she do that?

What the hell IS she running on, anyway? Well, besides the obvious. She has apparently come out in support of Mom, Puppies and Apple Pie, but it's hard to find anything on her site besides meaningless platitudes.

Some day, when Steve Cohen has either retired or moved on to high office, we will have an African-American female in the 9th district seat. However, when you have a pool of accomplished Memphians to choose from like Lois Deberry, Barbara Cooper, Deidre Malone, among others, why would you choose Nikki Tinker? Why should she be sent to Congress before one of the aforementioned leaders?

Which is, of course, the point. She may be a nice person, but Tinker is running like she's Junior in a dress, and we've had enough DLC to last a lifetime in TN-09. I believe in the idea of More and Better Democrats, and since A) we already have a Democrat and B) you're not going to find someone who has worked harder in their freshman year than Steve Cohen, we have already achived that goal in TN-09.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Oh, and go read all of Wendi's column, it's great!

It's the end of the Quarter as we know it!

Midnight tonight is the end of the fundraising quarter. It is critical we meet our fundraising goals if I am to remain in the House of Representatives.

Over the next few weeks, my opponents and their surrogates will conduct their usual negative campaign. Only by standing together, Fighting for Memphis, and being positive can we win.

Please make a contribution before midnight tonight.

With Steve Cohen re-elected to Congress and Barack Obama in the White House, Memphis will have a leadership team devoted to meaningful change.

So please contribute to Cohen for Congress.

Thank you,

Steve Cohen