Some notes on TN-09

I arrived after the speechifying yesterday at Congressman Cohen's headquarters opening, so I missed him calling the Doc a Coward, but I don't think it was a bad thing; why should a former Golden Gloves champion be scared of two old reporters?

At the end of the day, it's just that the former Mayor is trying to control his media coverage as he did when he was in City Hall; however, as he has no real power any more, it becomes nothing more than an attempt to get free media, since he can't seem to raise much money on his own.

In fact, if I were to sum up the Doc's campaign in three letters, it would be WTF?

There are ways to campaign against Steve Cohen that might work, but it doesn't seem that the Doc is planning on trying any of them.  By trying to race-bait Cohen, one could almost suggest that if the races were reversed, Herenton is running like an old segregationist from the late 50s and early 60s.

On the merits, Cohen is essentially unassailable from a Democratic and progressive standpoint; one could argue that only Harold Ford Senior has done as much for the African-American community in terms of 9th District Congressmen.

The real question here is this:  Why is the Doc running?  What does he have to prove?  He has never lost an election, to be sure, but remember two things here: 1) he has NEVER run in a party primary before and 2) his elections have always been in October or November.

Let's look at that latter part in particular.  The African-American community has never voted as heavily in August primaries as they have in October or November general elections. This fact is a major reason the GOP has continued to dominate County offices, whose elections are held with the state & federal primaries in August.  I have a solution for that, if anyone is willing to listen.

The Doc is also running for a LEGISLATIVE position, when he has spent the majority of his professional career as an administrator.  In this area, whenever legislators run for executive positions or vice versa, they have not been successful.  In the first instance, only Wyeth Chandler (1971) and Jim Rout (1994) come to mind.

Only LAMAR! Alexander has done what Doc is attempting to do, and that was after a several-year gap between his governorship and his race for the US Senate.  In short, it's hard to imagine a 70-year-old freshman Congressman, especially someone like Doc, who is expected to sit down and do as he is told, which is the rule for all freshmen.

So, why is he running?  Is he bored? Is he doing this to get back at Cohen for some imagined slight?  At the end of the day, he risks destroying what is left of his legacy, with real Nixon-in-62 potential here.  Considering that, to give the man full credit, his first two terms were arguably the best of any Mayor of Memphis in my 38 years here, this is remarkably sad.

Why, Doc?  This really just doesn't make sense to anyone, and it will only hurt you in the end.

I am going to make a few predictions

Right here, right now. Willie Herenton will win the race for the Democratic nomination and thus the 9th District Congressional seat. He doesn't deserve it by any stretch of the imagination for the reasons Wendi has said. Herenton is running because he feels like in 1990 he is the only candidate. In addition, this move by Herenton and his Flavor Flav like hype man Sidney Chism is exactly what is wrong with Memphis politics. Herenton has refused to build the bench of strong candidates. Herenton also is complaining about lack of representation and racism (using dog whistle tactics). He believes that only he can remove the seat from the iron grip of Steve Cohen.

Give me a break. If Herenton and Chism would not have fostered division and distrust within the local party, then Steve would have faced a stronger candidate the last two elections and would have most likely lost.

It is no wonder Herenton doesn't think anyone else could beat Cohen. When the list of young, energetic candidates is nonexistant who could do it because of your own insistence on cronism and division, no shit. When you do nothing but belittle and deride those who disagree with you, when you work with downtown developers who line your pockets at the expense of development in areas that need it, when you call racism on your own incompetent apointees being indicted on animal cruelty while people who paid you off aren't, no shit.

There are no other qualified candidates by your definition because you definition has only your picture Willie D. I wish you and Flavor Chism would have built a bench. I wish you and your Bomb Squad of campaign crew would have had a better campaign slogan then Shake off the Haters. Willie is not about Memphis, he is about himself.

On to the other races. Bill Haslem will win the Republican nomination and also the governorship. Sorry Jim. You will win the Democratic nomination though. The Republicans should win unless this year's General Assembly session is a disaster that we can lay at the Republican doorstep. Keep painting them in a negative light as a do nothing Assembly.

The 8th district race will be tight. I think Herron pulls it out if the Republican primary battle is as brutal as they say. Flinn probably won't win. Funnily, if we win, we will probably lose the seat shortly after. The Republicans are looking to make the district solidly Republican. Look for them to put a good deal of East Shelby over in that district from the 7th regardless. This will mean Lincoln and Bart's old districts will get hard to win.

Agree? Disagree? Prove me wrong.

Heh. We have a potential new candidate in the Mayor's race.

To steal a Pete Townshend line, MEET THE NEW BOSS, SAME AS THE OLD BOSS.

Yes, Willie W. Herenton has picked up a petition to run in the special election to replace, well, Willie W. Herenton. I can't even get mad, I think it's hilarious. My thought is that he sees AC rolling to victory, and he's going to teach Wharton a lesson about who's boss in the Bluff City. Then, after having conquered Wharton and everyone else, he will wait until spring and retire again in anticipation of his race against Steve Cohen.

Given that I happen to believe that Wharton will get more votes from the white community than the black community, Herenton could very well win this thing, unless..........

The African-American community decides they've had enough, because it's in their hands now, and they need to determine for whom they will vote and why. Of course, I still haven't, but, before the election. I hope Whalum stays in to challenge the former Mayor if WWH files, THAT alone would be worth the price of admission.

UPDATE: The MDN article linked above now has WWH's statement which essentially attacks Myron Lowery for turning the city "backwards". Um, that wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that Myron is trying to drive out WWH's old payrollers, would it? Just sayin', that's all.