I am going to make a few predictions

Right here, right now. Willie Herenton will win the race for the Democratic nomination and thus the 9th District Congressional seat. He doesn't deserve it by any stretch of the imagination for the reasons Wendi has said. Herenton is running because he feels like in 1990 he is the only candidate. In addition, this move by Herenton and his Flavor Flav like hype man Sidney Chism is exactly what is wrong with Memphis politics. Herenton has refused to build the bench of strong candidates. Herenton also is complaining about lack of representation and racism (using dog whistle tactics). He believes that only he can remove the seat from the iron grip of Steve Cohen.

Give me a break. If Herenton and Chism would not have fostered division and distrust within the local party, then Steve would have faced a stronger candidate the last two elections and would have most likely lost.

It is no wonder Herenton doesn't think anyone else could beat Cohen. When the list of young, energetic candidates is nonexistant who could do it because of your own insistence on cronism and division, no shit. When you do nothing but belittle and deride those who disagree with you, when you work with downtown developers who line your pockets at the expense of development in areas that need it, when you call racism on your own incompetent apointees being indicted on animal cruelty while people who paid you off aren't, no shit.

There are no other qualified candidates by your definition because you definition has only your picture Willie D. I wish you and Flavor Chism would have built a bench. I wish you and your Bomb Squad of campaign crew would have had a better campaign slogan then Shake off the Haters. Willie is not about Memphis, he is about himself.

On to the other races. Bill Haslem will win the Republican nomination and also the governorship. Sorry Jim. You will win the Democratic nomination though. The Republicans should win unless this year's General Assembly session is a disaster that we can lay at the Republican doorstep. Keep painting them in a negative light as a do nothing Assembly.

The 8th district race will be tight. I think Herron pulls it out if the Republican primary battle is as brutal as they say. Flinn probably won't win. Funnily, if we win, we will probably lose the seat shortly after. The Republicans are looking to make the district solidly Republican. Look for them to put a good deal of East Shelby over in that district from the 7th regardless. This will mean Lincoln and Bart's old districts will get hard to win.

Agree? Disagree? Prove me wrong.

Jim Kyle picks up a great endorsement

From the Kyle camp comes this message:

Ward Cammack Endorsing Jim Kyle for Governor

Ward Cammack will endorse Jim Kyle for governor tomorrow, breaking his silence since leaving the gubernatorial contest earlier last year. The Kyle campaign released that former gubernatorial candidate Cammack will participate in a conference call with Kyle to announce his support.

Cammack sited Kyle’s legislative record and belief that he has the ability to lead Tennessee in the right economic direction. This is the first endorsement by a former candidate in the 2010 gubernatorial race.

With Jim Kyle showing strong numbers in his first campaign finance totals released last week, the endorsement could send a powerful signal of the momentum the Kyle campaign is building.

For more information or to RSVP for the conference call number please call Katy Cutright at 901-543-8683.

WHEN: Thursday, February 4, 2010

TIME: 2:00pm CST

Jim Kyle Fundraiser for tomorrow night

REMINDER - Jim Kyle to come to DL TONIGHT!!!!

From the Drinking Liberally website:

In the continuing series of Gubernatorial candidates visiting Drinking Liberally, State Senator Jim Kyle will be appearing THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, August 26. As he will be arriving between 7:45 and 8 PM, we will EXTEND our hours to 10 PM so that you will have time to hear him speak and ask him questions about his vision for Tennessee!

As always, we are at RP Billiards at 525 South Highland on the Strip, come on out!

Save the date of August 26: Jim Kyle comes to Drinking Liberally!

This is your less-than-two-week notice: State Senator and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Kyle will visit Drinking Liberally on August 26 between 7 and 9 PM!

As always, this is held at RP Billiards at 525 South Highland on the Strip, come on out!

Pictures from today and the text of the Kyle speech

Democratic National Committeewoman and Shelby co-chair Gale Jones Carson starts the proceedings by gathering elected officials.

Several notables in the crowd, from Senator Beverly Marrero on the left, standing next to retired judge Russell Sugarmon, Nancy Kuhn (front left corner) Labor leaders Paul Shaffer and Howard Richardson (center of picture)
The Senator's best asset, Sara Kyle, who is a former City Court Judge, former Public Service Commissioner and current member of the Tennessee Regulatory Authority.

The Senator and his family.

While he's always been on target talking about issues, it was his communicative abilities on display today that stunned me. It truly was the best speech I've heard him give, and one that will resound with voters on the campaign trail. Here's the text, courtesy of the campaign:

Remarks by Senator Jim Kyle

August 11, 2009

I’d like to thank Bill Morris, Regina Newman and Gale Jones Carson, my Shelby County co-chairmen who I know will help make sure Shelby County is Kyle County in August and in November next year.

Also, thanks to Matt Kuhn, my statewide campaign manager. Matt is on one leg today, but he will be up and running soon just like I am up and running today.

Thanks to the University of Memphis for allowing us to use this beautiful venue in the center of a great university, which is in the center of a great city.

I would like to thank each of you for being here today, particularly my brother, sister, sister-in-law, Betty Belle and her children, Belle and Rachel Peery, and other dear friends and supporters.

My children are here and I appreciate them for being so supportive and involved in this event and for being the kind of kids that put up with a senator daddy. Would you please give my daughters Sarah, Mary and Caroline, as well as my son Jim a round of applause?

And last but not least, my wife Sara, what can I say, isn’t it great to see her on the campaign trail and wasn’t that a great introduction! She is truly the best.

While I was born in Memphis, I grew up in Capleville, which at that time was a rural community closer to Mississippi than Memphis. My dad, the late Jimmy Kyle, returned to the family homestead when my sister Pam was born, and on Highway 78, near Shelby Drive, I spent my childhood, across from the school yard and baseball field which were the centers of our community life. Dad drove a truck for railway express and my mother, Louise Kyle, helped build tires at the Firestone tire factory in north Memphis.

My mother will be 90 years old in October. She doesn’t handle the heat very well these days and isn’t here, but she has never lost a box for me and will be out in force next November.

My parents’ jobs were physical jobs, and both my parents worked hard. The values of being frugal, being honest, and being trusted were engrained in me early by depression-era parents who wanted more for their children.

My life has led me to lead many roles: college student, law student, husband, lawyer, senator, democrat leader, and chairman of the Shelby county delegation. But the role that has defined me more than any other is that of a parent, who like Jimmy and Louise Kyle wants a better world for our children and laments the opportunities we fail to capture.

You know, the man who got me into the senate is here today. He is my brother, Mike. You can thank him or blame him, but in 1980 we were living together in a small house in north Memphis when one morning after hearing me comment about our current senator for what he thought too many times, screamed at me “I am sick and tired of hearing you complain, either run against him or quit” to which I replied, “Okay, I will.”

So I started that campaign that afternoon with two votes – mine and his. And his was soft.

That morning ultimately led to my election on June 10, 1983 and since that day I have been involved in the issues of the day in Tennessee. From “master teacher” to “bicentennial highway”; from “B.E.P.” to “prison reform”; from fiscal crisis to budget surplus; from B.E.P. 2.0 to pre-k funding.

I have been tested by the issues of the day, elected 8 times by those who know me best, and trusted by my fellow democrat senators as their leader since 2005.

Now what I learned from reforming our prison system, to reforming public education, to sponsoring and passing seven consecutive balanced budgets is that you plan for the long term. I have worked in partnership with our current governor Phil Bredesen to pass his legislative initiatives and I have been trusted to sponsor and pass every major initiative of his administration.

I am proud to be from Tennessee. We have a beautiful state and we are still the “volunteer state” as many charities will attest. We have a culture of self-reliance and friendliness unparalleled in this country. We can all be proud of our state and its people.

But Tennessee has some things we should not be proud of: First, our unemployment rate is one of the nation’s top ten. Over 10%! To put it another way, one of every ten people you see today will be unemployed. But wages of those other nine with jobs aren’t doing that great because wages in Tennessee rank in the lower third of our country.

Finally, Tennessee lags behind other states when it comes to what the census bureau calls “educational attainment”, and by that I mean the percentage of Tennesseans with college degrees. Only 23 % have a college degree. 42 states are doing better. This is the reason we are paid less and have fewer job opportunities.

We can do better. Our children are trusting us to do better. That unemployed Tennessean trusts us to do better.

Ladies and gentlemen I have been tested by this life of mine. And trusted my whole life to strive to make things better. And I tell you today. We can compete and we can win!

This is how we will change our state and change our community. We start by taking a long-term view to higher education. We are going to have a higher education system focused on graduating students, not enrolling them. We are going to tear down the barriers preventing our citizens from getting a college degree.

In the coming months I will put forward an education plan that will help more Tennesseans afford college in two different but very important ways

We are going to start with those who have been frustrated by our current system and who couldn’t finish. As I understand it, there are over 30,000 Tennesseans who are one year from graduation and have stopped their education.

I am going to make them an offer they can’t refuse. We will use some of the reserves from the lottery and we are going create an incentive scholarship program that will help students return to college and finish their degree.

When this happens, overnight, we will increase our education attainment percentage and make our state more competitive for the high wage recession-proof jobs going elsewhere today.

And second, I make this promise to every Tennessean who enrolls in a higher education institution in Tennessee. So long as you are making sufficient progress towards obtaining your degree, we will never, never, raise your tuition. What you pay as a freshman you will pay as a senior!

We will take higher education to a higher place. We will restructure and refocus and build upon the progress Governor Bredesen has made. We will recharge our colleges and universities to make them economic engines for our state workforce.

A better Tennessee is a smarter Tennessee…But to do this, I need you.

It’s hot today but it will be hotter before this election is over.

Please… stand with me…walk with me…do it for yourself and your family.

In the height of the depression, my daddy had to borrow a pair of trousers to attend his high school graduation. But friends, he graduated…and I’m standing here today because he graduated!...

Let’s make a government that measures its success one citizen at a time.

And now…

At this time…

At this place…

In this moment…

For these reasons…

With you people…

For our people…

With the tests of my life…

With the trust you have given me…

I hereby declare my candidacy to be the 49th governor of great state of Tennessee.

Thank you, and god bless Tennessee and the United States of America.

Just a quick update here

Later tonight, we will have a post with pictures and a rundown on the Jim Kyle gubernatorial announcement, but let me tease you with this: despite my earlier concerns, he went out and gave the best speech I've heard him give in his 26 year career, and I told him so.

Watch this space.

I'm about to go to the Kyle announcement

But I almost decided to tell him where to put his campaign after something I read yesterday.

Now, a lesson in framing. I got up Monday morning and spit out my coffee after reading this CA article on Kyle's announcement, which had this little bundle of joy in it:

But Kyle has repositioned himself on an issue sure to haunt him: his vote for a tax-reform plan that included a state income tax in exchange for exempting grocery food from sales taxes and cutting the sales tax rate on everything else. As a member of the Finance Committee during former GOP governor Don Sundquist's push for tax reform, Kyle voted to send the bill to the Senate floor, where it was never called up for a vote after failing in the House.

"That was almost 10 years ago. I am against an income tax, and I will veto it. Phil Bredesen has proven we can manage this government without an income tax and frankly showed me I was wrong to consider an income tax."

What the fuck? This is the very reason I kicked Phil Bredesen in the balls on a daily basis since 2002, and this is a quote from a guy I'm preparing to support for Governor? Really, what the fuck?

Understand that two things are working at the same time here: 1) Tennessee DESPERATELY needs an income tax due to its horribly regressive tax structure and 2) the Goopers have poisoned the well on this issue to the point that if anyone supports it, they will probably be strung up on the spot. So, it's not that I wanted Kyle to actively support an income tax, I just wanted him to shut up about it.

No matter what the polls may say, WHOEVER is elected Governor is going to have to face an income tax at some point in their upcoming term, because the budget problems are only going to get worse, not better, and to dig yourself a hole like this is just plain stupid.

Not only that, by saying what he said, he reinforced the anti-taxation meme of the GOP, which HURTS Democrats and a progressive agenda. That's not acceptable.

Props to Kim McMillan here, who simply said to me, when I asked her about it earlier this year, that the people simply do not want an income tax at this time, and there is no point in pushing it. THAT, my friends, is a simple restatement of political reality, and does not reinforce any Republican meme.

Fortunately, Jim Kyle has LOTS of good friends here in Big Shelby working with the campaign, and my rage has been made known to him and I am hoping that this simple lesson in framing gets through to him. If we continue to discuss issues based on GOP definitions and framing, the Democratic Party here may as well not exist.

See you at the rally!

You've been waiting for this, here we go!

PLEASE SAVE THE DATE!

TUESDAY, AUGUST 11TH, AT NOON.

UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS.

MORE INFORMATION TO COME...

EVERYONE IS INVITED!

All righty then

While the Senator from the 28th District has not yet made an announcement, he has filed his paperwork for a race for Governor. I must advise you, if Jim Kyle does indeed make an announcement to run for Governor, and I personally believe that he will, your humble Cracker might find it difficult, nay, impossible, not to support our fellow Shelby Countian.

No, not THAT fellow Shelby Countian, he's on the wrong side of the aisle, you know.

I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin', you know.

Jim Kyle, you da man!

The Democratic leader of the Senate has come up with a bill that would enable Senator Ophelia Ford to temporarily step aside from her seat due to health reasons, and appoint a temporary successor.  It would also enable the Governor and/or the General Assembly to do the same if she refused to do so.  Click the link for the CA story and the bill itself.

Look, something has to be done here; as I have noted previously, the citizens of District 29 have no representation, and the Senate, even though tied at 16-16-1, could be run roughshod by the Republicans, and that is NEVER a good thing.  If Senator Ford were to give us more information and her doctors could provide a prognosis, this might not be necessary.  This simply CANNOT continue as it has, and I fully support Senator Kyle's actions.

This, essentially, is the concept of administrative leave, whereby a person can step aside from their duties until such time as their health improves or their legal situation is resolved.  It works in other parts of the country, why not here?

All in all, thumbs up to Senator Kyle for this solution to a sad and potentially tragic situation.

I really hate having to say this, but....

UPDATE 01/09, thanks again to ACK:

From the office of Jim Kyle:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE JANUARY 9, 2008
ADVISORY: KYLE AVAIL ON DISTRICT 29 BILL NASHVILLE -- At 8:45 a.m. CST on Thursday, January 10, Democratic Leader Senator Jim Kyle, D-Memphis, will hold a media availability in the Legislative Plaza Press Gallery to discuss legislation related to the situation in Senate District 29.
WHO: Senator Jim Kyle
WHAT: Avail on District 29 legislation
WHEN: Thursday, January 10, 8:45 a.m. CST
WHERE: Legislative Plaza Press Gallery

Ruh-roh.

If Senator Ophelia Ford (D-29) is going to be absent from her Senate duties for an extended period of time, as her attorney has advised, then the question must be asked: What is her long-term prognosis?

I'm not the first to ask this question; Senator Jim Kyle (D-28), her party's Leader in the Senate, has apparently asked this as well. From his perspective, he needs to know whether he can count on her vote at any point in the legislative session, which begins tomorrow.

As you know, I supported her in her first election, and through the fol-de-rol of whether it was legal or not. I don't want to throw her out in the snow if there is a reasonable chance that she will return soon. However, her constituency has a right to know if they are going to have representation this spring, or ever. I believe that someone with a knowledge of her condition needs to make a public explanation, so that the citizens of Senate 29 can determine if they need to request that she resign in order to take care of her health and that they can replace her.

This is not meant with any disrespect to Senator Ford or her family or anyone connected to her. Her constituency needs to know what the prognosis is for her recovery, as her physical inability to perform her duties effectively disenfranchises them while session is going on.

Personally, I think I speak for everyone in the Democratic family when I am hoping and praying for a speedy and full recovery for Senator Ford. She has a good heart and the best intentions for District 29.

However, it is becoming apparent that she simply may not have the physical health necessary to perform her duties at the level her constituents require. There is no shame in this whatsoever, and I wish her only the best.

If this in fact is the case, it is incumbent on those around her to make this public, or at least explain the situation and make clear that she can recover, if possible.

I believe this is in the best interest of Senator Ford and her constituents.

Thanks to Kleinheider for the hat tip.

You had to see this coming

Although I don't necessarily believe it's a good idea.

Both Volunteer Voters and R. Neal have picked up on Adam Groves' story that Senator Rosalind Kurita may face a Democratic Primary challenge at the hands of former Montgomery County Mayor Doug Weiland.

The Senate Democratic Caucus supports her, as does the Tennessee Democratic Party; however, I seriously doubt you'll see the Senate Democratic leader, our own Jim Kyle, campaigning for her. Although he would never publicly admit it, a Weiland victory is more likely to make him happy, since he can't be sure that, in the event of another 16-16-1 Senate after the 2008 elections, that Kurita would vote for him over Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey (R-Blountville).

Look, I know Kyle is still furious over this, but I have an answer for him: GO BEAT SOME REPUBLICANS AROUND THE STATE AND YOU CAN BE SPEAKER. It's as simple as that.

You know, I was stunned when she voted for Ramsey, and I met with her, as several of my brethren in the blogging community did, and I wasn't really satisfied with her answers.

However, the blunt truth is that A) she was screwed by the DSCC in her aborted US Senate race, for which I have yet to forgive Chuck Schumer, B) since that time, she has continued to work for progressive causes, and C) I do like her personally, and as much as I would like to see her punished for voting for Ramsey, we are in no position to do so unless the Caucus gets a few more members.

As far as I'm concerned, the oust-Kurita movement is wasted effort, as I suspect her district likes her just fine, and will re-nominate and re-elect her. Now, it would help if she would openly declare that she would vote for Kyle for speaker, but since the likelihood of that is the same as Heidi Klum calling me to ask for a date, I'm not holding my breath.